How AP rates the presidential race and the Road to 270

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Clinton appears to have expanded her likely electoral college advantage amid strong early vote numbers in key states and national polling that, while tightening, consistently shows her leading Republican rival Donald Trump.

The Associated Press this week moves Nevada, where most recent polls show Clinton leading and early vote numbers appear to be in her favor, to leaning Democratic.

AP also moves Iowa from leaning Republican to tossup after a recent Quinnipiac University poll there showed a tied race.

The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.

If Clinton is able to hold on to her current battleground leads, she would win the White House even if Trump sweeps the remaining tossup states.

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SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington state (213 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (65 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (87 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Texas (67 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (106 total electoral votes).

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Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan

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Want to chart your own path along the Road to 270? Figure out how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can get the Electoral College votes they'll need to win the White House with AP's interactive map: http://elections.ap.org/content/road-270-0

 

 
 

 

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